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Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - No Data and Two-Chart Tuesday

It's Tuesday and it's the 2nd day in a row with no economic data.  Not much is going on around the world either relative to moving bonds one way or the other.  Yesterday, the benchmark bond finished down 9 basis points and this morning the bond has 28 basis points off its low to its current level of +14 basis points on the day - 2 basis points below the 1st resistance level.

There is a rather odd thing that's happened as far as technical analysis for the benchmark mortgage bond is concerned:  the RSI has trended down over the last few days in spite of a little rally (except for yesterday).  This isn't necessarily huge because this has happened over the last four days where the bond has been up 3 of the 4 days albeit a paltry 18 basis points.  That said, the RSI has gone from a reading of about 55 (70 is overbought) to a reading of about 40.  If this sticks, it would be an indication that traders may be looking buy more bonds.  I wouldn't read too much into this because the move has been so small, but you may want to tuck this away in the back of your mind.

Here's a peek at the chart:

Here's a look at the chart with the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator):

Tomorrow brings us our first data point for the week in Existing Home Sales.  Thursday is Jobless Claims and Leading Economic Indicators (which are expected to be weaker than last month).  Friday we get New Home Sales.  I would float right now if my loan wasn't closing for 15+ days.  I would also watch the market very closely so that if things did turn, I could lock quickly, perhaps before a reprice.  Feel free to call me if I can help with anything mortgage-related:  702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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