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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day Edition

We made it!!  We are virtually half way through the week (maybe more, depending on when you are reading this.  Well the big news for today has yet to occur - the vote by the Greek parliament is expected later today and I believe the traders are waiting for that to make a definitive move.

This morning we got the June PPI numbers and they were higher than expected with the PPI ex-food and energy coming in at .3 vs. .1.  Annualized, this number is higher than the Fed's target inflation rate of 2.0 (it's 3.6).  This is typically negative for bonds and would usually cause a sell-off pushing rates higher but bond are actually up slightly this morning in spite of the fact that Industrial Production was also better than expected (.2) at .3 and the NY Manufacturing index beat expectations of 3.5, coming in at 3.86.  In spite of all of the data that is negative for pricing, bonds are up a bit this morning and it's probably due to the remarks of Janet Yellen which were very tempered and soothing when she said “If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal-funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.”
Here's a look at the chart:

I would be safe and lock ahead of the Greek vote.  Assuming your lender has a float-down option (like I do), then you can take advantage of it if rates improve.  Feel free to contact me for anything mortgage-related:  702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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