Search This Blog

Friday, August 7, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - It's Friday and we are coming out of this week with only a few bumps and bruises.

It's Friday of Jobs week and we only are coming out of this week better than expected.  You may recall that we got hit pretty hard right square in the nose on Tuesday (down 50 basis points) after one of the Fed presidents talked about their desire to raise rates sooner rather than later.  Wednesday looked like more of the same but a weak ADP Private payrolls report helped stem the tide and we saw improvement throughout the day to finish that day only down 5 basis points.

Yesterday, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 270K, which was 1K less than expected and 3K more than the previous week.  The FNMA benchmark bond rebounded to close up 18 basis points probably on the thought that today's reports would be weaker than expected based on the ADP report on Wednesday even though there's been a disconnect between the two the last few months.  This morning, Non-farm Payrolls came in at 215K, slightly weaker than expected of 220K and also below last month's reading of 231K.  Average Hourly Earnings beat expectations with a reading of 2.1 vs. 2.0 expected.  All in all, this data didn't do anything to dis-spell the comments made by the Fed president (or the intent behind the comments) on Tuesday about raising the Fed Funds rate sooner rather than later yet we are seeing more gains again today with the FNMA benchmark bond up 19 basis points as of this writing.

With the improvements yesterday and today, you may consider locking, especially if you have a loan closing within 15 days.  If you have 15+ days, you might consider floating but as always, keep a close eye on the market so that you can be ready to lock quickly if the market moves against you like it did Tuesday afternoon.

For you football fans, both college and NFL training camps have begun and games are right around the corner - even if it feels like they are still a long ways off.  Who are your favorite college and NFL teams and how do you think they'll do this year?  My college team is the University of Utah (PAC12) and I think they will end the year ranked with a 9-3 or 8-4 record and hopefully be in the top 3 of the South Division with a trip to a good bowl game.  The Dallas Cowboys (I'm sure the haters will all come out now) are my favorite NFL team and I think that if their running backs can have a good year and (mostly) replace Demarco Murray's production and the receivers can be strong, they might possibly make it to the Super Bowl.  Their defense looks better than last year - especially starting week 5 when they get a couple of key players back from suspensions.  Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section and remember that I'm always happy to help in any way I can - 702-812-1214 - I'll even help with your fantasy football draft.

No comments: