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Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Have you locked yet?

It's Tuesday and we have more data this morning with some really important releases tomorrow.  This morning, Building Permits came in at 1119, much lower than the expected 1257 or the previous of 1204.  The data that's hiding in that number, though is that the decline was in multi-family housing since SFR permits were up 12% so the number isn't really as bad is it looks on the surface.  Housing Starts came it at 1206, slightly above expectations of 1200 but far below last month's 1337.

In Friday's post as well as yesterday's, I said that I would lock by the end of business today.  If you haven't locked, now's the time.  I'll be locking one of my clients this morning with two things potentially being a big drag on bonds tomorrow with the CPI and Fed Minutes being released.  The FNMA benchmark bond is current down 9 basis points at 103.40 - just 7 basis points above the 1st level of support.  The RSI is right in the middle of being overbought and oversold so that is not a factor.

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section and subscribe to the blog to be notified when I publish a post.  In the meantime, don't hesitate to contact me if I can help you with loan scenarios - we have a lot of niche products - as well as guideline and interest rate questions (702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720).  Make it a great day.

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