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Monday, May 4, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Monday after a bad week edition

I didn't post anything last week because I was getting my new computer up and running.  During this time, the mortgage bond market was sputtering and sliding amidst weak economic data.  As you will see from this morning's snapshot of the MBS chart, last week the benchmark bond sold off 104 basis points which is equivalent to an increase of about .25% in interest rate.

This morning, factory orders came in at 2.1% which was as expected - this is old data, though so not a big market mover.  We are currently 7 basis points below our 2nd level of support but 10 basis points off the low for the day.  Finishing above the 2nd level of support would be a good thing.  Tomorrow brings ISM non-manufacturing index and the trade balance numbers (not a big market mover).  It is the first week of the month so we get the big employment numbers starting Wednesday with ADP private payrolls.  Thursday, like always, brings the initial jobless claims (where were better than expected last week) and Friday will give us the all important non-farms payroll numbers and the unemployment rate.  All of these reports have the ability to impact rates.  Pay strict attention to the mortgage bond market so that you can lock quickly if you decide to float.  Here's a snapshot of this morning's chart - check out the excitement from last week:

For regular updates throughout the week regarding the mortgage bond market and what interest rates are doing, be sure to "Like" the Wunderli Team facebook page.  If I can help with anything mortgage-related, please feel free to call me at 702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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