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Thursday, May 7, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - The Market Wants to Be Up

Happy Initial Jobless Claims Thursday.  Yesterday we saw week data from the ADP report and bonds sold off thanks to some minor inflationary data release on unit labor costs and lower efficiency.  In spite of fewer private payrolls as reported by ADP yesterday, initial weekly jobless claims came in at 265 vs. expectations of 280 and previous of 262.  The bond market was up from the open but sold off as soon as this data was released and has since rebound and is currently up 19 basis points.  the RSI is quite oversold so a nice bounce is possible unless it's squashed by tomorrow's non-farm payroll reading and the unemployment number.  I wouldn't expect a huge rally today since we had decent numbers this morning and the headwind from tomorrow's impending release.  Here's the chart:

Floating coming into today made sense with so much selling the prior 8 days but with a jobs report that's expected to be strong tomorrow, I'd play it safe and lock today.  If rates get better over the next week, you may be able to float down, depending on your lender's policies.  Make it a great day and feel free to contact me if I can help with anything mortgage related - 702-812-1214.

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