Search This Blog

Friday, March 13, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - TGIF

It's Friday and we have some good news on the interest rate front - which of course means bad news for the economy.  The PPI (MoM) was -.5 versus expectations of +.3 (previous was -.8).  This is not a good thing and but for the fact that the benchmark bond is constrained by some relatively strong resistance at 101.27 because of the technical resistance level and the 100 day moving average, this should have been very positive for rates.  Instead, we began the day with a drop and it was actually down 13 basis points before the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was released.  This was also a big miss, coming in at 91.2 vs. estimates of 95.8 - no wonder the retail sales numbers stunk yesterday, consumer confidence is falling after being at ridiculously high levels the last couple of months.

The combination of these two items helped change traders' moods from sellers to buyers as the benchmark bond has done an about face and is now up 15 basis points on the day (28 basis points off the low) and is currently 1 basis point below the first level of resistance at 101.26.  Here's a snap shot of the chart:

The RSI is still closer to oversold than overbought and some timid economic news next week could help continue this little rally we are having.  Of course, with all of the tensions around the world, that helps keep interest rates low as well since traders like the safety of bonds in uncertain times.  

March Madness:  For you college basketball fans, the madness has begun.  With the major conference basketball tournaments finishing up this weekend, Selection Sunday is two days away.  There will be brackets to fill out and lots of potential (and real) upsets to be had.  This is my favorite time of year for sports with the NCAA basketball tournament followed by the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the NBA playoffs.  

Keep a close eye on the mortgage bonds and make sure you are ready to act fast if they start to sell off - unless you've already locked, then you're safe.  Make it a great day and a better weekend.

No comments: