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Thursday, March 5, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Mixed-up edition

It's Thursday and that means Initial Jobless Claims, among other things.  Initial Jobless Claims surprised to the negative side again, coming in at 320K vs expectations of 295K.  This is a decent sized miss.  Additionally, Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that their quantitative easing program will begin tomorrow and is scheduled to end in August of 2016.  On the bad side (for the bond markets anyway) of things, Unit Labor Costs were 4.1 vs. estimates of 2.9 and previous of 2.7.  Factory Orders came in at .2 which equaled expectations.  Non-farm Productivity was a mixed bag coming in at -2.2 which was better than the expected -2.3 but worse than last month's -1.8.

Tomorrow's another big day in the data world.  Today's data is causing a bit of a sell-off with the FNMA benchmark bond currently down 6 basis points, 15 basis points off the high and 8 basis points above the morning low.  This is a very narrow range and no real trend has been established yet.  If anything, there is a slight down trend but I wouldn't panic by any means.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  Make it a great day.

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