It's Thursday which means...Initial Jobless Claims, just like every Thursday. The week started off with three relatively small down days for the FNMA benchmark bond - it was down 13 basis points yesterday. This morning, it is up 13 basis points based on some weaker-than-expected news in jobless claims with an actual reading of 304K vs. expected of 285K and previous of 279K. This is good for pricing, as you might imagine. Retail sales (MoM) was a mixed bag with the overall numbers coming in low at -.8 vs. expectations of -.5 and previous of -.9. However, the numbers ex-auto were up .2 vs. expectations of -.5 and previous of -.8. Overall, all of this news is positive for pricing and it may give us a break from the selling we've had over the last 8 days or so.
On a technical level the benchmark bond is quite oversold; this could entice investors to get back in as well. We have a holiday weekend coming up so expect investors to hedge their bets tomorrow. Also driving rates tomorrow will be the Import Price Index and Reuter's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Next week is a light week for data with the market closed on Monday and a data-less day on Tuesday. Wednesday brings us the first bit of economic news with the PPI and the FOMC minutes.
I'll be in SLC on business tomorrow so I may not have a post tomorrow. Make it a great day.
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