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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day edition

Happy Hump Day.  After a strong finish yesterday thanks to investor's read on Yellin's comments, the benchmark bonds are trying to figure out which way to go this morning.  With stronger-than-expected new home sales numbers (though still not really strong) the benchmark bond sold off 24 basis points from its morning highs and has since reversed course a bit from when I took the snapshot of the bond market and is now up 11 basis points on the day - 10 basis point higher than when I took this shot:

From a technical standpoint the relative strength indicator has shot up and is now closer to overbought than the mid-point.  The FNMA bond is bumping its had on the first level of resistance and breaking through that would only mean that it has to fight with the second level of resistance which is just 26 basis points higher than the first.  

Tomorrow's Thursday.  If you have read my posts on a regular basis you know that that means one thing:  it's...Jobless Claims Thursday.  It's also a 2nd son's 14th birthday, but I digress.  We also have a few data pieces on Friday so you may want to take advantage of our recent improvements and lock or you can risk it for what's behind door number 1 - Jobless Claims numbers and / or door number 2 - jobless claims numbers and Friday's data (Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, GDP, U of M Consumer Sentiment Index and Pending Home Sales).  What will it be?

At any rate (of course it's a pun), a final check of the benchmark bond shows it has slid back a bit and is now only up 2 basis points on the day.  Make it a great day and feel free to call me if I can help with anything mortgage related:  702-812-1214.

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