Search This Blog

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - What's going on with the volatility this morning?

Good day and sorry for the late post, but...we have some good news regarding the mortgage bond market this morning.  Despite some good news on the economic data front with housing starts and building permits both coming in above the million mark (but below expectations), the benchmark bonds are performing well.  Thanks to an implosion of the Russian Ruble last night, the FNMA benchmark bond is currently up 28 basis points on the day (it was down 27 basis points yesterday).

There has been quite a bit of volatility as it has bounced off the 1st level of resistance twice and the 1st level of support once.  It is currently 10 basis points off its high at 104.35 and 19 basis points off its recent lows for the day; it is one basis point above the first resistance level.  The RSI is not overbought but it is getting close.  Here's the chart:

It really is a great time to lock your interest rate if you have a loan closing soon.  The CPI is coming out tomorrow along with the Fed's interest rate decision - they will probably hold tight for now but they may give some hints as to if and when they might start raising interest rates in 2015 - some Fed officials are thinking around June while others are pushing for a later date.  Thursday we have initial and continuing jobless claims along with Leading Economic indicators and Philly Fed Manufacturing index.

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section or contact me if I can help with anything - 702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

No comments: