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Friday, December 12, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - It's My Wife's Birthday edition

Happy Birthday to my beautiful wife.  Apparently the bond market likes the fact that my wife made it another year because it's been rallying this morning.  The PPI came in quite benign which is good for the bond market but the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index had a reading of 93.5 vs. estimates of 89.5.  This kind of reading would usually adversely impact rates but with oil being as low as it is (which helps keep production and transportation costs lower) the market is still rallying.  The other oddity with such high consumer confidence is the fact that we aren't seeing follow through in related areas like great retail sales numbers - if consumer confidence is high, you would think they would be spending money and buying stuff.

At any rate, the benchmark bond is currently at 104.30 which is right at the 2nd level of resistance and is 15 basis points off its high for the day but is still up 24 basis points.  Here's today's chart:

We have some data releases everyday next week except for Friday.  If I had a loan to lock, I would lock now and take advantage of the recent gains but for those who might want to roll the dice (I live in Vegas) you can choose to float but make sure you are watching the market closely for any sudden moves that could erase our recent gains and negatively impact your rate.  Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.  Call me if I can help with anything mortgage related:  702-812-1214.  Make it a great weekend.

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