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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis

It's another quiet day for economic data and we are seeing a bit of a rebound from Monday's 31 basis point beating - a day with NO data.  Today we have wholesale inventories which came in at .3 vs. expectations of .2 and previous of .6.  This has little to no effect on the mortgage bond market.  The benchmark bond (the FNMA 3.5) is currently up 7 basis points which is 22 basis points off it's high for the day.  On the government side, the GNMA 3.5 is up 40 basis points which is 11 basis points off its high for the day.

Like I always say, rates are great.  Tomorrow we will get the jobless claims numbers (initial and continuing) and I'm guessing that these numbers will come in relatively strong since those who may have otherwise had to file unemployment claims will have found seasonal employment.  Going forward, all employment numbers will be skewed because of the temporary seasonal employment so it will be hard to get an accurate read on how the labor market is actually doing until early 2015.  That said, employment data could still move the market so you may want to lock ahead of the release (5:30 a.m. PST tomorrow morning) if you want to be safe.  Here is the chart:

An article from talks about some demographics of people purchasing homes and the interesting part addresses the millennials (18-33) who are showing reluctance to get into the housing market.  It's a good read and may be something to think about with regard to some marketing ideas:  Millennials Still Grapple With First-time Homebuying.

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section as well as to like and share the post.  Contact me if I can help with anything mortgage-related:  702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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