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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - The Day Before Thanksgiving edition

Happy Hump Day and more importantly, Happy Thanksgiving.  There was a fair amount of data released today including the jobless claims numbers (which were not on the list to be released).  Here's how everything shook out:  Durable Goods orders ex-transportation were -.9 vs. expected of .5 and previous of .2 but the overall durable goods orders number came in at .4% vs. expectations of -.6% .  Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index came in below expectations at 60.8 vs. expected of 63 and previous of 66.2 (anything over 50 shows growth).  The Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 88.8 (highest final reading in 7 years) but below expectations of 90 and above the previous reading of 86.9.  Weekly jobless claims came in at 313K vs. expectations of 288K - this is a big miss and is the first time over the 300k level in about 10 weeks.

Personal spending came in at .2% vs. .4% and New Home Sales (MOM) came in at .7 vs. expectations of .4.  New Home Sales came in at 458 vs. 470 expected and previous of 455.  Pending home sales (MOM) were down 1.1 vs. expectations of increasing .5.  And that is all of this morning's data.  Here's a look at the chart:

With all of that data and not a lot of tradas (I went for the lame rhyme), the benchmark FNMA bond is currently up 12 basis points and is slightly above the new 2nd level of resistance of 104.00 at 104.06.  The RSI is still overbought but the bias may be changing a bit since it's a little lower than yesterday.  It's a great time to lock.  Additionally, you could float if you have the time but always keep a sharp eye on the market and hope that your loan officer watches it closely as well - or you can use me as your loan officer because I watch the market closely as well as doing lots of other things.  At any rate (pun intended) have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.  If you need an approval or have any questions regarding mortgages, I will have my laptop with me and can help out as needed - 702-812-1214.

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