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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day Version

It's hump day and it's also the day before the jobless claims numbers are released and two days before the employment report - both of which could influence interest rates.  The ADP private payroll numbers came in a bit better than expected at 213 vs. 210 expected and 202 previous, but most people know to take this number with a grain of salt.  Construction spending was down -.8 vs. expected of +.4 and previous of 1.2.  ISM Manufacturing index also came in below expectations at 56.6 vs. 58 expected and 59 previous.  What does all of this mean?  It's PARTY TIME - the benchmark bond is currently up 42 basis points and we are at our highest level in over three weeks.  Rates are looking really good right now and I highly recommend locking and taking advantage of this move since the jobless claims and employment report could easily take it all away.  Of course, they could also surprise to the downside and impact rates positively.  No one has that crystal ball but we do know that we have seen significant improvement in the mortgage bond market over the last couple of weeks and now is a great time to lock.  Here's the chart:

In addition to the upcoming economic data releases tomorrow and Friday, there is also the fact that the benchmark bond is overbought which means investors could start to sell and take some profits and there is some pretty strong resistance at the current price point.

I won't have access to a computer tomorrow or Friday - I'll be out in the woods camping with a friend of mine.  I'm excited to see what happens with the data the next two days.  Lock now or roll the dice?  That's the question.  Please like, comment, share and subscribe.  Make today great.

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