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Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - It's Wednesday and the beginning of the jobs data

Happy Hump Day.  Wednesday is my favorite day of the week.  My daughter is on a mission for a year and a half and she only gets to write emails on her Preparation Days (P-days).  For now, that's Wednesday so I get to have some communication with her and hear how everything is going (she's going to Tokyo, Japan so it's a tough language to learn.

As for mortgage rates, the ADP Private Payrolls Report came out this morning and it was a bit better than expected at 179K new jobs vs. expectations of 170K.  The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index missed expectations by a bit coming in at 55.6 vs. expectations of 56.  This is still a very strong reading.  However, the FNMA benchmark bond finished up 7 basis points after closing down 21 and 17 basis points on Monday and Tuesday respectively.  The GNMA finished the day up 15 basis points.

The RSI is just above the mid-point between oversold and overbought - it's a wee bit closer to overbought.  at 103.77, the benchmark bond is 2 basis points above the 1st level of resistance.  It was 6 points off the high for the day but 15 points above the low.  We still have plenty of jobs and other economic data this week.  I would lock and be done with it just to be safe.  The bond price is still quite high and traders could look to trim their holdings if the data is strong as today's data suggests it will be.

I'll be out of touch the next three days as I will be fishing in a remote area of Utah (Panguitch).  I'll be out of the office next week on a little family vacation to So. Cal. but I will have access to my computer and phone so I may try to get a post up on Monday and / or Tuesday.  Make it a great day.

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