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Thursday, March 24, 2016

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Jobless Claims Thursday

It's Thursday which means Jobless Claims.  Just like last week, they came in close to expectations with a reading of 265K which matched last week's number and was 3K below expectations.  Durable Goods Orders came in slightly better than expected at -2.8% vs. expectations of -2.9; last month's reading was 4.2% so it's not too surprising to see a number like this in our fragile economy.  Ex-transportation, Durable Goods was much worse than expected as it was -1.0% vs. expectations of -.2%.

Oil is once again the big driver as it is down a fair amount today due to a strong dollar and mounting US stockpiles.  The FNMA benchmark bond is up 6 basis points at 101.96 and is testing the 2nd resistance level of 101.98 as well as the 50 day moving average.  After closing up 27 basis points yesterday, I think there is a fair amount of headwind that will keep the bond from moving too high today.  The RSI is getting close to the overbought threshold so that may start to play a bit of a factor with traders.  The bond market closes early today - 2:00 pm EDT - and it is closed tomorrow.  GDP is out tomorrow  but you may want to lock before the long weekend just to be safe.  I'm available over the weekend to help with pre-approvals and mortgage questions - 702-812-1214, 801-853-8720 or

Make it a great day and a better weekend - whenever your weekend starts.  Batman V. Superman is out (as my son has reminded me) and we have the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 this weekend for NCAA basketball.  Enjoy.

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