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Monday, February 22, 2016

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Monday, Monday.

It's quiet on the bond front this morning after the weekend.  I hope you had a great one - my alma mater, the University of Utah, won both of their road games against UCLA and USC over the weekend.  Things are looking good with them as they prepare for the PAC 12 tournament and ultimately the NCAA tourney - March Madness is my favorite time of year for sports.

As for mortgage bonds, on Friday I wrote that I though bonds might trade in a tight range until something gives them the impetus to break out.  There's no data today so no jump start exists there.  Oil is up strong today which is providing a boost to the stock market and bonds are off because of it - the FNMA benchmark bond is down 4 basis points as I write this.  The RSI is a bit closer to oversold than overbought.  At 102.46, the bond is 33 basis points above the 1st level of support so if traders decide to sell, there's a bit of a fall before it hits the support level.  While we have some data this week, it is on the light side and nothing that is likely to move the market.

Next week is Jobs Week with ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, Jobless Claims Thursday (like every Thursday) and Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate on Friday.  There is other important data as well and traders will be looking to see what they should do based on this data.  For now, float with extreme caution.  If you are working with a loan officer who either doesn't give bond market / interest rate updates, then download my app in the upper right of my blog to receive general rate alerts as well as specific rate alerts direct from me.  You can also call or email as well - 702-812-1214, 801-853-8720 or  Make it a great day and a better week.

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