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Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day Edition

It's already Hump Day which means...we get the first bit of jobs data from jobs week.  This morning the ADP Private Payrolls Report came out and at 217K it blew away estimates of 183K.  While this doesn't always translate to good numbers in the Non-farm Payrolls or the Unemployment rate but it did last month and traders are selling on the news.  Another drag on the FNMA benchmark bond this morning is the Unit Labor Costs which shot up to 1.8% from .9%; this is, of course, inflationary and would provide reason for the Fed to raise the Funds rate.

Yesterday I recommended locking ahead of the jobs data today and with an up day of 30 basis points preceded by a 19 basis point up day, it would have been ideal to lock especially when today the bond is selling off and is currently down 24 basis points nearly wiping out all of yesterday's gains.  If you didn't follow my advice yesterday to lock, I would reiterate my stance to lock ahead of the upcoming data because I believe there is a greater likelihood of more deterioration than there is for upside gain.
For those who use me to help them with their mortgages, they can attest that the information I provided them goes far beyond advice about when to lock.  While getting a great rate means locking at the right time, not just using a lender who claims they have the best rates, there is so much more that goes in to a client's financial success and that means educating them regarding financial principals and then helping them understand the options about how the various ways of structuring their loan will impact their financial future.  I do this for my clients and would love to help you with your loan or your clients' / friends' loans.  Contact me with any mortgage-related questions at 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.  Make it a great day.

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