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Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Mixed Data Tuesday

Happy Tuesday (not to be confused with Happy Days which used to air on Tuesdays).  Once again we are in a tight trading range and probably will be for the foreseeable future - probably at least until jobs week in December (first week of the month) and possibly until the FOMC releases their interest rate decision on December 16th.  The mixed data today has the 1st revision of the 3rd quarter GDP revised to 2.1% from 1.5% (this will be a big influence on the Fed's decision to raise the Fed Funds rate) but Consumer Confidence for November came in at 90.4 vs. estimates of 99.5.  Overall, the GDP number is more influential than the consumer confidence number but between the low number and the geo-political happenings overseas, the mortgage bond market is getting a bit of a lift.

The FNMA benchmark bond closed up 4 basis points yesterday at 103.35 and is currently up 4 basis points to 103.39.  The RSI is now overbought so in addition to improving economic data and the increasing likelihood that the Fed will raise rates in December, we have even more headwinds.  I'm thinking that now is a good time to like and take advantage of our recent price improvement since November 10th.

Contact me if I can help in any way - 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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