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Thursday, October 1, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Jobless Claims Thursday

Happy Jobless Claims Thursday.  The data this morning has started out on the weak side for the most part with initial jobless claims coming in at 277K vs. estimates of 270K and previous of 267K.  Continuing claims came in at their lowest level in 15 years at 2.191mil vs. estimates of 2.236mil and previous of 2.244mil - this reading is negative for bonds but the Challenger Job cuts were much higher than expected at 58,877 vs. estimates of 41,186.  Just got the data for August construction spending which came in a bit higher than expected at .7% vs. estimates of .5% but the more important data as far as mortgage bonds and interest rates are concerned is the September ISM Manufacturing Index which came in at 50.2 vs. estimates of 50.6.  While it still shows growth, it is the 3rd straight month of slowing growth.  

After closing up 11 basis points yesterday at 104.36, the FNMA benchmark bond is up 17 basis points at 104.53 which is its high for the day and it's also the 4th day in a row it is up.  I recommended floating (always with a close eye on the market so that you can act quickly) unless you have a loan closing in the very near future then lock and take advantage of the recent gains.  A last quick look at the charts shows the benchmark bond up 11 basis points like before but it just shed 10 basis points from its high after a quick recent spike.  At its current level, it is well above the 200 day moving average and it is also 11 basis points above the 1st resistance level of 104.36 but 12 basis points below the 2nd resistance level of 104.59.  Interest rates are great and locking now wouldn't be a bad thing as traders may decide to take some profits but I would still float VERY cautiously to see if we can get more weak data tomorrow to help continue the rally.

I'll be without cell service or internet connection for most of the rest of today and through Sunday, possibly Monday.  We are still available to help you with anything mortgage related; Brad Malking, owner and top-producer of Noble Home Loans is available to help with rate questions and pre-approvals - 702-869-8790.  Make it a great day and a strong finish to your week.  I'll leave you with this inspirational message:  go out and be the best.

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