It's Friday. While that doesn't mean a lot for people in the real estate and lending industries since we often work nights and weekends (I was working on loan scenarios for clients until about 10:00 last night), it does mean that the mortgage bond market can take a breather from getting beat up the last two days. Wednesday afternoon I recommended locking in advance of any further sell-off (some lenders allow clients to float down after they have locked assuming the rate has improved by a minimum amount). The FNMA benchmark bond sold off an additional 33 basis points in addition to the 41 it sold off on Wednesday. The total of the sell-off is equivalent to about .125% in rate AND .25 in points. Hence, if a client was looking at a par rate of 4.25% on Tuesday, they would be looking at about 4.375% with a .25 point cost after yesterday's move.
This morning, more mixed data is out with Core PCE, Personal Spending and Personal Income all narrowly missing expectations by .1. The Chicago PMI broke out from its previously weak readings in a big way with a 56.2 (previous readings were below 50 which is really bad as a number below 50 shows contraction). This would normally be really bad for bond prices but with two previous days of selling and a slightly weaker-than-expected GDP number yesterday (1.5 vs. 1.6 estimates) in addition to a lower Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (90 vs. 92.5 estimate), the benchmark bond is showing a bit of resiliency as it is up 17 basis points (GNMA up 8 basis points). It's quite possible that we might be in the midst of a new narrow trading range - we won't know for sure until we've been in it for a number of days but the headwind is the Atlanta Fed president blustering that a rate hike is all but certain in December and the GDP is getting closer to the target rate of 2% so there could be some validity there. On the contrary, there isn't any really strong economic data anywhere in the world. Data is usually mixed and when it is good, it's not real strong. A vote of 9-1 on Wednesday against a rate hike shows that 5 people have to change their mind in December for the Fed to make a move so bond traders will be looking for some definitive data to make any big moves but I think the upside is limited and there is much more risk to the downside. Traders don't want to be the last one to leave the party since they'll be stuck with the tab. I would lock on any positive improvement with the thought of floating down if rates improve.
That's all for now. Hopefully the Mets can win game 3 of the World Series and turn it around. The Utes play their annual blackout game tomorrow against Oregon State - I'll be there cheering them on with my family (look for me if you watch the game on TV - I'm in the front row of the OSU section since OSU returned some tickets; they didn't want to travel to watch their team get whooped). Make it a great day and a better weekend. Call me if I can help with anything mortgage related or if you want to talk sports or music - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Fed Decision Day
It's Hump Day but more importantly (at least for those getting mortgages), it's Fed Decision Day. At 2:00 Eastern time, the Fed will announce whether they are going to leave the Fed Funds rate where it is or raise it. Most of the voting members of the board are doves and if you add to that the recent weak data, I think it's unlikely that they will raise the rate; six weeks ago the vote was 9-1 in favor of leaving rates where they were. While there is no data being released today, there is a 2 and a 5 year bond auction and depending on how they are received, we could see some movement one way or the other in the FNMA benchmark bond - the last two auctions were received well and we got some price improvement because of them.
Yesterday I wrote that even though the bond was up about 20 basis points when I finished my post, I didn't think we'd really break through the resistance levels and establish a new range. The FNMA bond closed the day up 11 basis points at 104.61, 9 off of where it was when I finished my post and 5 basis points above the first resistance level (two below the 2nd). We remain in a very tight trading range; looking back to October 2nd (over three and a half weeks ago) we are 19 basis points above the opening of 104.42. Today's auctions and the Fed decision could give the market the impetus it needs to break out of the range. Locking now wouldn't be a bad thing since rates really are great, however, I would consider taking a gamble and floating through the decision since I expect the Fed will keep rates where they are AND that the auctions will be well received like the previous two. If you do float, be extra vigilant since bond prices can move in a hurry against you if bad things happen.
Tomorrow brings weekly jobless claims along with a 7-year treasury auction. On Friday we get Personal Income, Personal Spending (and related items), Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. I may not be available tomorrow to write about today or tomorrow morning's data but I can be reached by phone if you need to get a hold of me for mortgage information (or a pre-approval) - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. I plan to be back on Friday if I miss tomorrow. Make today great.
Yesterday I wrote that even though the bond was up about 20 basis points when I finished my post, I didn't think we'd really break through the resistance levels and establish a new range. The FNMA bond closed the day up 11 basis points at 104.61, 9 off of where it was when I finished my post and 5 basis points above the first resistance level (two below the 2nd). We remain in a very tight trading range; looking back to October 2nd (over three and a half weeks ago) we are 19 basis points above the opening of 104.42. Today's auctions and the Fed decision could give the market the impetus it needs to break out of the range. Locking now wouldn't be a bad thing since rates really are great, however, I would consider taking a gamble and floating through the decision since I expect the Fed will keep rates where they are AND that the auctions will be well received like the previous two. If you do float, be extra vigilant since bond prices can move in a hurry against you if bad things happen.
Tomorrow brings weekly jobless claims along with a 7-year treasury auction. On Friday we get Personal Income, Personal Spending (and related items), Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. I may not be available tomorrow to write about today or tomorrow morning's data but I can be reached by phone if you need to get a hold of me for mortgage information (or a pre-approval) - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. I plan to be back on Friday if I miss tomorrow. Make today great.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Weak Data Provides Strength for Mortgage Bonds
With October drawing to a close and the holiday (Christmas) buying season right around the corner, durable goods orders came in at a disappointing -1.2% vs. expectations for a disappointing -1.1%. Ex-transportation, they missed the mark even more, coming in at -.4% vs. expectations of 0%. This is a positive for mortgage bonds and is currently providing a lift as the FNMA benchmark bond is up 15 basis points at 104.65 - 2 basis points above the 2nd level of resistance. The Case-Schiller Home Price Index came in as expected at 5.1% and is a non-factor in pricing, partly because it's based on older data. Another bit of good news for mortgage bonds came in the form of the final October Consumer Confidence reading which came in at 97.6 vs. estimates of 102.5 and a preliminary reading of 103.00. This is a major revision to the down side and should help push mortgage bond prices even higher.
Here's a look at the chart from about a half hour ago:
The benchmark bond is currently up 19 basis points at 104.69 - 6 basis points above the 2nd resistance level. The RSI is slightly above the mid-point between overbought and oversold so this isn't a major factor right now. By itself, I'm not sure that today's data is enough to break us out of the current trading range but there is some other announcements throughout this week that may lend a hand. Tomorrow we get the Fed's interest rate decision. I don't see them raising rates but anything can happen. At the last FOMC meeting the vote was 9-1 in favor of keeping rates where they are and with weak data, I don't see enough voting members changing their votes in favor of an increase. Add to our weak data the fact that the ECB, PBOC and BOJ are all doing things to try to stimulate their economies and you have no real reason for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate.
On Thursday we get the jobless claims numbers, just like every Thursday and on Friday we get personal spending numbers, Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. By the end of the weak we will find out if we can break out of the trading range one way or the other or if we will continue to be stuck here. I will note that being "stuck" here isn't a bad thing since rates are very low which makes it a great time to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage. I'm always available to assist you or someone you know with a mortgage. Please contact me at 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. A final look at the benchmark bond shows it's given up some of its gains as it's only up 10 basis points at 104.60. Make today great.
Here's a look at the chart from about a half hour ago:
The benchmark bond is currently up 19 basis points at 104.69 - 6 basis points above the 2nd resistance level. The RSI is slightly above the mid-point between overbought and oversold so this isn't a major factor right now. By itself, I'm not sure that today's data is enough to break us out of the current trading range but there is some other announcements throughout this week that may lend a hand. Tomorrow we get the Fed's interest rate decision. I don't see them raising rates but anything can happen. At the last FOMC meeting the vote was 9-1 in favor of keeping rates where they are and with weak data, I don't see enough voting members changing their votes in favor of an increase. Add to our weak data the fact that the ECB, PBOC and BOJ are all doing things to try to stimulate their economies and you have no real reason for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate.
On Thursday we get the jobless claims numbers, just like every Thursday and on Friday we get personal spending numbers, Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. By the end of the weak we will find out if we can break out of the trading range one way or the other or if we will continue to be stuck here. I will note that being "stuck" here isn't a bad thing since rates are very low which makes it a great time to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage. I'm always available to assist you or someone you know with a mortgage. Please contact me at 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. A final look at the benchmark bond shows it's given up some of its gains as it's only up 10 basis points at 104.60. Make today great.
Monday, October 26, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Monday Morning QB
It's Monday and it's football season so it's time for fans to play Monday morning quarterback. The University of Utah's quarterback had a bad game against USC which cost the Utes the victory. He threw three meaningful interceptions (4 in total) with two of those either being returned for a touchdown or inside the 10 yard line giving our defense little chance to do anything. USC played a better game than we did and pulled off the upset. All is not lost and as long as we get back on our horse and ride, we can still have a great season.
As for the Mortgage bond market, the FNMA benchmark bond has capitulated in a very narrow range over the last 7 days and has been unable to break through the 104.56 and 104.63 resistance levels with any strength in order to make a solid move up. Contrarily, the support level of 104.3 has held firm as well. This means that rates remain wonderfully low as bond traders look for cues to buy with conviction and push prices higher and rates lower or to sell and exit the ride. For now the RSI is a little above the half way mark between oversold and overbought and the bond is 5 basis points off its morning high at 104.5.
There is a bit of economic data this week including September New Home Sales today which came in at 468K, much weaker than the expected 550K; this is a bit contrary to the NAHB Sentiment Index which came in at 64 last week (very strong) vs. estimates of 62. Next week will be data heavy with the three jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday and Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. There's a lot of other data in addition to those. Last week the ECB, PBOC and BOJ (three key central banks) all continued or added to their stance of stimulating their economies. With this in mind and the likelihood for mixed data and no data that shows a strong recovery, I anticipate bond prices to continue to trade in a tight range for the near future. Like last week, I would lock for closings within 15 days and float for closings beyond the 15 day mark. As always, if you choose to float, make sure to keep a close eye on the market so that you can lock quickly of the market moves against you. Remember that the market is a live, heavily traded market so prices and rates fluctuate throughout the day. On a bad day, we can lose .25 - .375% in rate and on a good day we can pick up about the same (down is more common than up as investors are cautious when setting rates). Reading my posts each morning will help (reading them in the morning is best so that you have time during the day to lock if that's what you decide to do) but using a loan officer who follows the market closely will help insure that you lock at the right time, or at least at a good time. Offering great rates like Noble Home Loans is a great start to getting a good rate on your mortgage but locking at the right time is just as important. If I can help you or a client in any way, please contact me at 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and a better week.
On a final note, the World Series begins this week and the Mets make their every 1.5 decade appearance against the KC Royals. Go Mets.
As for the Mortgage bond market, the FNMA benchmark bond has capitulated in a very narrow range over the last 7 days and has been unable to break through the 104.56 and 104.63 resistance levels with any strength in order to make a solid move up. Contrarily, the support level of 104.3 has held firm as well. This means that rates remain wonderfully low as bond traders look for cues to buy with conviction and push prices higher and rates lower or to sell and exit the ride. For now the RSI is a little above the half way mark between oversold and overbought and the bond is 5 basis points off its morning high at 104.5.
There is a bit of economic data this week including September New Home Sales today which came in at 468K, much weaker than the expected 550K; this is a bit contrary to the NAHB Sentiment Index which came in at 64 last week (very strong) vs. estimates of 62. Next week will be data heavy with the three jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday and Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. There's a lot of other data in addition to those. Last week the ECB, PBOC and BOJ (three key central banks) all continued or added to their stance of stimulating their economies. With this in mind and the likelihood for mixed data and no data that shows a strong recovery, I anticipate bond prices to continue to trade in a tight range for the near future. Like last week, I would lock for closings within 15 days and float for closings beyond the 15 day mark. As always, if you choose to float, make sure to keep a close eye on the market so that you can lock quickly of the market moves against you. Remember that the market is a live, heavily traded market so prices and rates fluctuate throughout the day. On a bad day, we can lose .25 - .375% in rate and on a good day we can pick up about the same (down is more common than up as investors are cautious when setting rates). Reading my posts each morning will help (reading them in the morning is best so that you have time during the day to lock if that's what you decide to do) but using a loan officer who follows the market closely will help insure that you lock at the right time, or at least at a good time. Offering great rates like Noble Home Loans is a great start to getting a good rate on your mortgage but locking at the right time is just as important. If I can help you or a client in any way, please contact me at 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and a better week.
On a final note, the World Series begins this week and the Mets make their every 1.5 decade appearance against the KC Royals. Go Mets.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Little data and it's mixed.
Happy Tuesday. The Mets are up 2-0 in their 7 game National League Championship Series with the Cubs (game 3 is tonight - go Mets) and the University of Utah Utes are 6-0 and ranked #3 in the AP poll with 16 first place votes and #3 in the College Football Power Index - this is the kind of data I like, and it's not mixed. Conversely, the NAHM Home Builder's Sentiment Index came in at 64 yesterday vs. estimates of 62 (this is a 10 year high). This isn't a big factor in pricing and neither is Housing Starts which came in at 1206K vs. estimates of 1150K or the contrarian data of building permits that came in low at 1103K vs. estimates of 1170K - this is a precursor for housing starts. This is all of the data for today and there is no data tomorrow so traders are looking for the next big news that will provide them with direction.
For now, the 1st resistance level at 104.56 has proven to be strong with a couple of attempts to break through getting beaten down. The RSI is closer to oversold than over bought so that's a good thing and the support level of 104.3 is fairly strong so I would expect to see the FNMA benchmark bond trade in a very narrow range until some important economic data or a big geo-political even breaks us out of the narrow range we are in.
Thursday brings us the European Central Bank policy statement which could have an impact on bonds as well as the weekly jobless claims data. Additionally, we get Leading Economic Indicators as well as Existing Home Sales. The benchmark bond closed up 12 basis points yesterday at 104.54 - 2 basis points below the 1st resistance level. This morning, the bond is down 15 basis points and based on today's chart, I would guess that the bond will finish somewhere around where it's trading right now. I would float with caution and be ready to lock if there is a quick move to the downside. Call me if I can help with anything mortgage related at 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and go Mets.
For now, the 1st resistance level at 104.56 has proven to be strong with a couple of attempts to break through getting beaten down. The RSI is closer to oversold than over bought so that's a good thing and the support level of 104.3 is fairly strong so I would expect to see the FNMA benchmark bond trade in a very narrow range until some important economic data or a big geo-political even breaks us out of the narrow range we are in.
Thursday brings us the European Central Bank policy statement which could have an impact on bonds as well as the weekly jobless claims data. Additionally, we get Leading Economic Indicators as well as Existing Home Sales. The benchmark bond closed up 12 basis points yesterday at 104.54 - 2 basis points below the 1st resistance level. This morning, the bond is down 15 basis points and based on today's chart, I would guess that the bond will finish somewhere around where it's trading right now. I would float with caution and be ready to lock if there is a quick move to the downside. Call me if I can help with anything mortgage related at 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and go Mets.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Jobless Claims Thursday
It's the day of reckoning for the New York Mets who play the final game of a 5 game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers in LA. If they win, they advance to the National League Championship Series to play the Cubs (who would have bet on that matchup at the beginning of the season?) for the right to play in the World Series. But the purpose of this post is really to talk about more exciting things like economic data, mortgage bonds and interest rates.
Getting to the data, I have to ask: would you really be surprised if I told you the data is mixed? Surprise - it's mixed. Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 255K vs. consensus expectations of 269K. The CPI was also a bit better than expected with the headline number coming in exactly as expected at -.2% and the core CPI coming in at .2% vs. expectations of .1%. The real disappointing news came from the manufacturing side where the NY Empire Manufacturing Index with a consensus estimate of -7.4% came in at -11.36%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey had expectations of -1 but the reality was -4.5. These numbers will help to support the current pricing.
From a technical perspective, at 104.48, the FNMA benchmark bond is currently below both levels of resistance which are currently 104.56 and 104.63 respectively. The bond is down 13 basis points for the day which is 8 basis points off its low and 18 basis points above the 1st support level. The RSI isn't a factor right now with the current level just above the midline - smack dab (a highly technical term) between the overbought and oversold thresholds. Tomorrow will bring us Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in addition to the JOLTS report. Locking now would take advantage of the nice +33 point day we had yesterday and safeguard against anymore downside. I don't expect earth-shattering numbers tomorrow so floating isn't a bad idea as long as you keep a close eye on the market and are ready to lock at a moment's notice if the market moves strongly against you.
I'm available to help you or a client with anything mortgage-related - 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. Make it a great day.
Getting to the data, I have to ask: would you really be surprised if I told you the data is mixed? Surprise - it's mixed. Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 255K vs. consensus expectations of 269K. The CPI was also a bit better than expected with the headline number coming in exactly as expected at -.2% and the core CPI coming in at .2% vs. expectations of .1%. The real disappointing news came from the manufacturing side where the NY Empire Manufacturing Index with a consensus estimate of -7.4% came in at -11.36%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey had expectations of -1 but the reality was -4.5. These numbers will help to support the current pricing.
From a technical perspective, at 104.48, the FNMA benchmark bond is currently below both levels of resistance which are currently 104.56 and 104.63 respectively. The bond is down 13 basis points for the day which is 8 basis points off its low and 18 basis points above the 1st support level. The RSI isn't a factor right now with the current level just above the midline - smack dab (a highly technical term) between the overbought and oversold thresholds. Tomorrow will bring us Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in addition to the JOLTS report. Locking now would take advantage of the nice +33 point day we had yesterday and safeguard against anymore downside. I don't expect earth-shattering numbers tomorrow so floating isn't a bad idea as long as you keep a close eye on the market and are ready to lock at a moment's notice if the market moves strongly against you.
I'm available to help you or a client with anything mortgage-related - 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. Make it a great day.
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day + Data
It's been a quiet week so far with the holiday on Monday and no data to speak of yesterday. This morning brought us some more important data with September Retail Sales coming in at .1% vs. estimates of .2%, ex-autos, it's -.3% vs. estimates of -.1%. September Headline PPI is -.5% vs. estimates of -.3% and Core PPI is -.3% vs. estimates of .1%. These are all misses on data that the Fed monitors closely. Remember that retail sales is about 2/3s of our economy and it's not very strong (hence our recover is not very strong). Weak retail sales means that there isn't a lot of demand for most products and thus the CPI is likely to stay low which means over all inflation will remain low with no real need to raise the Fed Funds Rate (unless they want to create the illusion of a stronger recover in the hopes that people will think the economy is good and they can start spending money - this strategy definitely has some big risks). With little consumer demand, there is no need for companies to ramp up manufacturing which is why the PPI is staying low since demand for raw materials isn't strong. Following in line with this is the last bit of data we got today with August Business Inventories coming in at 0% vs. estimates of .1% - this isn't a big factor in pricing but it makes sense give the other data.
From a technical standpoint, we are coming off a four day losing streak but the FNMA benchmark bond only lost 28 basis points over that time. The RSI is hovering just above the mid-point which means it's a bit closer to overbought than oversold but it's not a factor at this level. The bond is currently up 20 basis points at 104.48, 9 basis points above the 1st level of resistance and 8 basis points below the 2nd level of resistance.
Lot's of data tomorrow: It's Thursday so that means Jobless Claims but we also get the CPI along with the NY Empire Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. All of this data could impact interest rates. I look for the CPI to be weak again, expectations are for -.1% vs. previous of .2%. Both manufacturing numbers are expected to be weak but not as bad as the previous reading. If you or a client have a loan closing within 15 days, I'd take advantage of these great rates and the bump we are seeing today and lock. Otherwise I might roll the dice on tomorrow's data and see if we get further improvement. Watch the market closely if you do float so that you can act quick and lock in ahead of a reprice for the worse in case the data surprises to the upside. Make it a great day and feel free to call me if I can help with anything mortgage related: 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.
From a technical standpoint, we are coming off a four day losing streak but the FNMA benchmark bond only lost 28 basis points over that time. The RSI is hovering just above the mid-point which means it's a bit closer to overbought than oversold but it's not a factor at this level. The bond is currently up 20 basis points at 104.48, 9 basis points above the 1st level of resistance and 8 basis points below the 2nd level of resistance.
Lot's of data tomorrow: It's Thursday so that means Jobless Claims but we also get the CPI along with the NY Empire Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. All of this data could impact interest rates. I look for the CPI to be weak again, expectations are for -.1% vs. previous of .2%. Both manufacturing numbers are expected to be weak but not as bad as the previous reading. If you or a client have a loan closing within 15 days, I'd take advantage of these great rates and the bump we are seeing today and lock. Otherwise I might roll the dice on tomorrow's data and see if we get further improvement. Watch the market closely if you do float so that you can act quick and lock in ahead of a reprice for the worse in case the data surprises to the upside. Make it a great day and feel free to call me if I can help with anything mortgage related: 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.
Friday, October 9, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Princess Bride edition
Happy Friday. It's the first day of the Mets' playoff series and the 2nd game of the season for the Rangers (hockey) who got off on the right foot at Chicago on Wednesday with a win. But I digress. After all, we have a big weekend of college and NFL football (go Utes - beat Cal). Of course, the real important stuff is what is going on with mortgage bonds and interest rates. September Import Prices were -.1% which is good as far as inflation is concerned but this figure was better than the expected -.4% so that's not good. The other piece of economic data to be released this morning was August Wholesale Inventories (old data) which came in at .1% vs. estimates of 0. This is a slight negative for bond prices but is somewhat offset by the older July data which was updated to -.3% from -.1%.
After closing down 10 basis points yesterday at 104.37, the FNMA benchmark bond is down 2 basis points to 104.35 - the new 1st level of resistance is 104.39 with the 1st support level still at 104.25. Both yesterday and this morning the benchmark bond has tested the support and it has held - every time the support (or resistance) is tested and holds, it gets stronger (kind of like lifting weights). The bond is 10 basis points of its lows and is trending slightly upward since the data release. If it continues, it could close the day in the green.
I'll be out of town through Tuesday and won't have any internet access to speak of but I will have my phone so feel free to call me if I can help with anything. Monday is a holiday and the bond market is closed and the only data on Tuesday is NFIB Business Optimism Index - not a big market mover. The rest of the week has some decent data with the Producer and Consumer Price Indices, Business Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production and the JOLTS Report in addition to the Fed Beige Book.
Finally, a very interesting quote from the FOMC Minutes that were released yesterday: "The time to tighten is here...BUT it is appropriate to wait at this time." WOW. I'm not making this stuff up. If the time to tighten is here, then tighten. If it is appropriate to wait at this time then the time to tighten really isn't here. I think they are confused. It reminds me of a scene from one of my favorite movies, The Princess Bride.
For those of you who want a little action seen to kick off your weekend, here's the great sword fight scene.
Call me if I can help with anything - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and a better weekend.
After closing down 10 basis points yesterday at 104.37, the FNMA benchmark bond is down 2 basis points to 104.35 - the new 1st level of resistance is 104.39 with the 1st support level still at 104.25. Both yesterday and this morning the benchmark bond has tested the support and it has held - every time the support (or resistance) is tested and holds, it gets stronger (kind of like lifting weights). The bond is 10 basis points of its lows and is trending slightly upward since the data release. If it continues, it could close the day in the green.
I'll be out of town through Tuesday and won't have any internet access to speak of but I will have my phone so feel free to call me if I can help with anything. Monday is a holiday and the bond market is closed and the only data on Tuesday is NFIB Business Optimism Index - not a big market mover. The rest of the week has some decent data with the Producer and Consumer Price Indices, Business Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production and the JOLTS Report in addition to the Fed Beige Book.
Finally, a very interesting quote from the FOMC Minutes that were released yesterday: "The time to tighten is here...BUT it is appropriate to wait at this time." WOW. I'm not making this stuff up. If the time to tighten is here, then tighten. If it is appropriate to wait at this time then the time to tighten really isn't here. I think they are confused. It reminds me of a scene from one of my favorite movies, The Princess Bride.
For those of you who want a little action seen to kick off your weekend, here's the great sword fight scene.
Call me if I can help with anything - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and a better weekend.
Thursday, October 8, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - "Weird" Addition.
What in the heck is going on in the world? You know it's weird when the Chicago Cubs are in the playoffs. It's even weirder when they also win a game. Add to this the fact that the New York Mets are also in the playoffs and you have one very rare year. The chemistry or karma has got to be at an all-time unexplainable weirdness level but I don't think it will have any impact on the mortgage bond market unless a key trader is a big fan of either team and then maybe if his or her team wins, he or she gets all giddy like a little school girl and makes some weird trades. Doubt that will happen but this is a unique year for baseball.
As for the mortgage bond market, I recommended floating with caution (that's how I recommend floating) yesterday in the morning when the bond was down as low as 21 basis points. It ended the day a bit better, only down 9 basis points. After being up as much as 9 basis points this morning, some stronger-than-expected jobless claims data put the breaks on the buying and the FNMA benchmark bond is now up 1 basis point and the 10-year treasury is at 2.07 - an important level. If the treasury breaks through this level then bond traders could sell off mortgage bonds pushing prices lower and rates higher. I don't expect much volatility until the FOMC minutes are released and digested. In fact, I'd be surprised if much happened after that since it was a 9-1 vote to keep rates the same. If there is some hidden gem in the minutes that lead traders to believe there may be a different result in the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, then that may cause some consternation and some selling.
There is a lot of resistance above the current level for the benchmark bond as the RSI is overbought and the 1st level of resistance is 11 basis points above the current price. There is more room for a drop with the 1st level of support 23 basis points below the current price and the 200 day moving average at about 104.18 - 7 basis points below the support level. I don't think there is a big possibility for a large upward movement in price (which would lower rates) today - barring any geo-political occurrence and while it's not great, I think there is a greater likelihood of selling based on the technicals so my recommendation would be to lock. Please feel free to contact me if I can help in any way - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and go Mets (their first playoff game is tomorrow night).
As for the mortgage bond market, I recommended floating with caution (that's how I recommend floating) yesterday in the morning when the bond was down as low as 21 basis points. It ended the day a bit better, only down 9 basis points. After being up as much as 9 basis points this morning, some stronger-than-expected jobless claims data put the breaks on the buying and the FNMA benchmark bond is now up 1 basis point and the 10-year treasury is at 2.07 - an important level. If the treasury breaks through this level then bond traders could sell off mortgage bonds pushing prices lower and rates higher. I don't expect much volatility until the FOMC minutes are released and digested. In fact, I'd be surprised if much happened after that since it was a 9-1 vote to keep rates the same. If there is some hidden gem in the minutes that lead traders to believe there may be a different result in the FOMC meeting at the end of the month, then that may cause some consternation and some selling.
There is a lot of resistance above the current level for the benchmark bond as the RSI is overbought and the 1st level of resistance is 11 basis points above the current price. There is more room for a drop with the 1st level of support 23 basis points below the current price and the 200 day moving average at about 104.18 - 7 basis points below the support level. I don't think there is a big possibility for a large upward movement in price (which would lower rates) today - barring any geo-political occurrence and while it's not great, I think there is a greater likelihood of selling based on the technicals so my recommendation would be to lock. Please feel free to contact me if I can help in any way - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720. Make it a great day and go Mets (their first playoff game is tomorrow night).
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Hump Day Edition
Well it's Hump Day (don't know why I like to capitalize it because it's not really an official day) which means we are just three days away from another big college football weekend with ESPN College Game Day broadcasting from the campus of my alma mater with my beloved #5 Utes playing Cal at 8:00 p.m. on Saturday night on ESPN. Gotta love the big time.
As for interest rates and mortgage bonds, I recommended locking on Monday morning which would have been a good thing if you followed my advice. The FNMA benchmark bond closed down 20 basis points on Monday. Yesterday it bounced back a tad, closing up 9 basis points on no economic data to speak of. This morning in an absence of data, the bond was down as much as 21 basis points at 104.35 and is currently trading at 104.39, down 17 basis points. The RSI is hovering around overbought and the 1st level of resistance at 104.59 has proven to be strong.
Support levels are at 104.25 for the 1st level and about 104.18 for the 200 day moving average. Tomorrow, like every Thursday, we get the jobless claims numbers. At about 2:00 pm EDT the FOMC minutes will be released which will give us a better insight as to the Fed's thought process at the last meeting when they decided to keep rates where they were and it may help traders get a feel for what the Fed is thinking for the next meeting at the end of October; we are 3 weeks away from another FOMC meeting. Friday has a couple of data points that may have a slight impact on bond prices but I don't expect moves to be really big unless there is some major global happenings which would typically be beneficial for interest rates as investors would move to the safety of bonds.
Locking at this point is not a bad idea since you never really know what's going to happen when the FOMC minutes are released though I don't expect much from this batch. Rates are still great as well. After a net sell-off since Monday of about 29 basis points based on the current pricing with the bond down 18 basis points right now, it is probably o.k. to float as long as you are paying close attention to the market - I'm always available to help out with that: 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. Make it a great day and a better weekend.
As for interest rates and mortgage bonds, I recommended locking on Monday morning which would have been a good thing if you followed my advice. The FNMA benchmark bond closed down 20 basis points on Monday. Yesterday it bounced back a tad, closing up 9 basis points on no economic data to speak of. This morning in an absence of data, the bond was down as much as 21 basis points at 104.35 and is currently trading at 104.39, down 17 basis points. The RSI is hovering around overbought and the 1st level of resistance at 104.59 has proven to be strong.
Support levels are at 104.25 for the 1st level and about 104.18 for the 200 day moving average. Tomorrow, like every Thursday, we get the jobless claims numbers. At about 2:00 pm EDT the FOMC minutes will be released which will give us a better insight as to the Fed's thought process at the last meeting when they decided to keep rates where they were and it may help traders get a feel for what the Fed is thinking for the next meeting at the end of October; we are 3 weeks away from another FOMC meeting. Friday has a couple of data points that may have a slight impact on bond prices but I don't expect moves to be really big unless there is some major global happenings which would typically be beneficial for interest rates as investors would move to the safety of bonds.
Locking at this point is not a bad idea since you never really know what's going to happen when the FOMC minutes are released though I don't expect much from this batch. Rates are still great as well. After a net sell-off since Monday of about 29 basis points based on the current pricing with the bond down 18 basis points right now, it is probably o.k. to float as long as you are paying close attention to the market - I'm always available to help out with that: 801-853-8720 or 702-812-1214. Make it a great day and a better weekend.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Monday Morning Mash-up
It's Monday after a 5-day winning streak for the FNMA Benchmark bond. After closing the week up 81 basis points from last Monday's open (about .125% in rate AND .3 points in favor of borrowers), you might suspect that bond traders might want to take a little money off the table. The RSI started the week quite overbought and has since come down to just slightly overbought with a sell-off of 15 basis points. At 104.52, the benchmark bond is now 7 basis points below the 1st level of resistance but still well above the 1st level of support (104.25) and the 200 day moving average (around 104.15).
Economic data today was a bit mixed (surprise, surprise) with the September ISM (non-manufacturing) index coming in at 56.9 vs. expectations of 57.7. This is a miss to the down side but still a strong reading and the Employment Index (a subcomponent of the ISM non-manufacturing data) jumped from August's 56 to 58.3. This is important since the Fed is watching all employment data very closely (with the possible exception of the Labor Force Participation rate which remains at its lowest level in 38 years).
There is a smattering of data that will be released this week but the most anticipated item will probably be the Fed minutes that will be released on Thursday. This could possibly be a market mover as traders will be looking into the details to try to get an indication of when the Fed will start raising rates. That said, the vote not to do anything was 9-1 at the last meeting and if we are being honest with ourselves, the job market isn't as good as some would have us believe, inflation is well below the target rate of 2% and most data just doesn't support an increase in the near future. However, the Fed may surprise us and decide to raise rates in an attempt to get us to start believing the economy really is heating up to spur us to act like it is heating up which could help get the economy to heat up. After such a nice run-up last week, I'd probably lock in my gains. If you want to float, do so with caution and watch the market closely so that you can lock quickly if the market takes a nose dive.
TRID is in effect. The new Truth-in-lending RESPA Integrated Disclosure is in effect as of Saturday and will impact the time line of a closing until we all have a handle on how they will play out. 45 day contracts should be the norm for buyers who need a mortgage to buy their homes. I doubt closings will actually take 45 days but there are new waiting periods so it's better to be safe than sorry. One tip to help make the process a bit more efficient is for the Realtor to not only name the escrow officer and company but to actually provide their full contact information so that we can get their fees and give them ours as soon as we get the file. Another thing to look for is either the use of 45 day locks which will mean slightly higher rates / fees or if the buyer insists on a 30 day lock, they will probably have to wait until about 15 days into the loan process before that will be available. Again, this is all very fluid since it is all very new to us and the title companies, the investors we sell loans to and us are all going to work through this as best we can. I'm always available to help with mortgage questions or pre-approvals for your clients - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.
On a lighter note, the University of Utah Utes are now ranked 5th in the AP poll, 7th in the Coaches' Poll and 1st in the ESPN Power Rankings. ESPN College Game Day will be at the University of Utah this week and they will be televising our game against Cal on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. MST. What a great opportunity. Go Utes. Make it a great day and a better week.
Economic data today was a bit mixed (surprise, surprise) with the September ISM (non-manufacturing) index coming in at 56.9 vs. expectations of 57.7. This is a miss to the down side but still a strong reading and the Employment Index (a subcomponent of the ISM non-manufacturing data) jumped from August's 56 to 58.3. This is important since the Fed is watching all employment data very closely (with the possible exception of the Labor Force Participation rate which remains at its lowest level in 38 years).
There is a smattering of data that will be released this week but the most anticipated item will probably be the Fed minutes that will be released on Thursday. This could possibly be a market mover as traders will be looking into the details to try to get an indication of when the Fed will start raising rates. That said, the vote not to do anything was 9-1 at the last meeting and if we are being honest with ourselves, the job market isn't as good as some would have us believe, inflation is well below the target rate of 2% and most data just doesn't support an increase in the near future. However, the Fed may surprise us and decide to raise rates in an attempt to get us to start believing the economy really is heating up to spur us to act like it is heating up which could help get the economy to heat up. After such a nice run-up last week, I'd probably lock in my gains. If you want to float, do so with caution and watch the market closely so that you can lock quickly if the market takes a nose dive.
TRID is in effect. The new Truth-in-lending RESPA Integrated Disclosure is in effect as of Saturday and will impact the time line of a closing until we all have a handle on how they will play out. 45 day contracts should be the norm for buyers who need a mortgage to buy their homes. I doubt closings will actually take 45 days but there are new waiting periods so it's better to be safe than sorry. One tip to help make the process a bit more efficient is for the Realtor to not only name the escrow officer and company but to actually provide their full contact information so that we can get their fees and give them ours as soon as we get the file. Another thing to look for is either the use of 45 day locks which will mean slightly higher rates / fees or if the buyer insists on a 30 day lock, they will probably have to wait until about 15 days into the loan process before that will be available. Again, this is all very fluid since it is all very new to us and the title companies, the investors we sell loans to and us are all going to work through this as best we can. I'm always available to help with mortgage questions or pre-approvals for your clients - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.
On a lighter note, the University of Utah Utes are now ranked 5th in the AP poll, 7th in the Coaches' Poll and 1st in the ESPN Power Rankings. ESPN College Game Day will be at the University of Utah this week and they will be televising our game against Cal on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. MST. What a great opportunity. Go Utes. Make it a great day and a better week.
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Jobless Claims Thursday
Happy Jobless Claims Thursday. The data this morning has started out on the weak side for the most part with initial jobless claims coming in at 277K vs. estimates of 270K and previous of 267K. Continuing claims came in at their lowest level in 15 years at 2.191mil vs. estimates of 2.236mil and previous of 2.244mil - this reading is negative for bonds but the Challenger Job cuts were much higher than expected at 58,877 vs. estimates of 41,186. Just got the data for August construction spending which came in a bit higher than expected at .7% vs. estimates of .5% but the more important data as far as mortgage bonds and interest rates are concerned is the September ISM Manufacturing Index which came in at 50.2 vs. estimates of 50.6. While it still shows growth, it is the 3rd straight month of slowing growth.
After closing up 11 basis points yesterday at 104.36, the FNMA benchmark bond is up 17 basis points at 104.53 which is its high for the day and it's also the 4th day in a row it is up. I recommended floating (always with a close eye on the market so that you can act quickly) unless you have a loan closing in the very near future then lock and take advantage of the recent gains. A last quick look at the charts shows the benchmark bond up 11 basis points like before but it just shed 10 basis points from its high after a quick recent spike. At its current level, it is well above the 200 day moving average and it is also 11 basis points above the 1st resistance level of 104.36 but 12 basis points below the 2nd resistance level of 104.59. Interest rates are great and locking now wouldn't be a bad thing as traders may decide to take some profits but I would still float VERY cautiously to see if we can get more weak data tomorrow to help continue the rally.
I'll be without cell service or internet connection for most of the rest of today and through Sunday, possibly Monday. We are still available to help you with anything mortgage related; Brad Malking, owner and top-producer of Noble Home Loans is available to help with rate questions and pre-approvals - 702-869-8790. Make it a great day and a strong finish to your week. I'll leave you with this inspirational message: go out and be the best.
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