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Monday, September 21, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - The Monday Morning Blues

As a guitarist, I love the blues; the blues is the root of rock and country.  The blues is not a good sign for financial markets, however.  On Friday, I recommended locking since there was lots of headwind like riding a bike up a steep hill against the wind (I'm also a bike rider).  There was the 1st and 2nd resistance levels of 104.08 and 104.20 respectively in addition to the 200 day moving average of about 104.15.  By the end of the day, there was not enough momentum for the FNMA benchmark bond to close above these levels - closing at 104.11 it did close above the 1st resistance level but it was only up 16 basis points for the day, 20 basis points off its high.  This morning, we are seeing some sell-off with the bond down 21 basis points and starting to eat into the gains we made on Thursday after the Fed's announcement.

There's a bit of data throughout the week that could influence mortgage bond pricing and Janet Yellin (Fed Chair) is speaking on Thursday afternoon so that could also impact the market one way or another.  Greece is back in the news, though not at the headline level yet.  Their PM resigned at the end of August so they will be electing a new government.  For now, their bailout package has been put on hold since the creditors want to see who they are dealing with.  Depending on the outcome, this could either have no effect on bonds or it could have a positive impact.

Should you / your client lock or float?  This is always a good question and sometimes it's a lot trickier than others.  Speaking of tricks, check out this great magic trick by a Realtor friend of mine:

But I digress (hopefully this helped with the Monday morning blues).  I don't think you could go wrong by locking right now.  I recommended doing so on Friday because I thought there was more downside risk than upside potential and I still think that is the case and is especially true with Janet Yellin speaking Thursday afternoon.  If Greece becomes a factor, then it might be worth floating but we may not see any impact from Greece for several days so I would absolutely lock if I had a loan closing within 15 days and beyond that I would probably lock but if I floated - you know my mantra - do so with an eye fixed on the market so that if it moves you can lock quickly, and hopefully before a reprice for the worse.  I'm always watching the market so if you can't or your current loan officer doesn't, feel free to call me to get a quick market update - 702-812-1214 or 801-853-8720.  Make it a great day.

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