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Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - April Fools edition

It's April Fools and I wish that the ADP Private Payrolls numbers were a joke.   The only joke is how pathetic they are, coming in at 189K vs. expectations of 225K.  ISM Manufacturing came in at 51.5 vs. expectations of 52.9 and the only data point that beat expectations was still negative with construction spending at -.1% vs. expectations of -.3%.  All in all it shows that our economy continues to struggle.  Of course the silver lining is that rates continue to be phenomenal.  The FNMA benchmark bond is up 26 basis points as I right this at 102.57 which is 2 basis points above the new 2nd level of resistance.  The RSI is also up to just below overbought but if the negative news keeps flowing, I wouldn't worry about it too much.

We are 87 basis points below our most recent closing high of 103.44 on January 30th.  A bad weekly jobless claims report tomorrow followed by a weak non-farm payrolls report on Friday could possibly get us back to that vicinity - I'm not counting on it but it is possible.  Nonetheless, rates are really great so locking in these gains (we've had 4 days in a row of gains in the benchmark bond with the +23 basis point close yesterday) is a very good thing but I would probably float with caution (be ready to lock as soon as any good economic news comes out to try to beat a re-price - problem is, the news is out before most lock desks are open so you really just have to roll the dice with tomorrow and Friday's news).

I'm off to start my day but feel free to contact me if I can help with anything mortgage-related - 702-812-1214.  Make it a great day.

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