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Thursday, January 22, 2015

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - Another Chartless Edition

Happy Thursday morning and I must apologize for being chartless again - I know it's not a pretty sight but such is the case when all I have is my small laptop screen to work with which doesn't allow me to take a proper snapshot of that beautiful chartless babe which is the mortgage bond market (TIC).  Hopefully I'll have a hot sexy graph for you tomorrow - assuming I'm alive after going flying in my buddy's new airplane.

As far as economic data is concerned, the weekly jobless claims were weak, coming in at 307K vs. expectations of 300K.  The bigger story is what is coming out of Europe where the ECB (European Central Bank) kept rates the same but announced an expanded asset purchase program including the purchase (investment) of up to 60 billion euros per month in order to stimulate growth and counter deflationary pressures.  This is 10 billion more than originally thought.

The benchmark FNMA bond was at 102.05 (it's low for the day and down 35 basis points on the day) when Draghi (president of the ECB) made the announcement.  Over the next 45 minutes the bond climbed 52 basis points to reach its high for the day at 102.57.  It has since sold off a bit and is now at even (102.40).

On tap for tomorrow we have leading economic indicators and existing home sales.  Should you / your clients lock?  It is a great day to lock and rates are still great even though we have seen a drop in bond prices of 102 basis points since 1/16 which equates to about .25% in rate over the last 6 days.  Please feel free to contact me at 702-812-1214 if I can help you with anything mortgage-related.  Make today great.

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