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Friday, September 19, 2014

Mortgage Bond Market Analysis - TGIF version

It's Friday and TGIF.  We're one day away from another great weekend of college football and my Utes are taking on the Michigan Wolverines in The Big House and I'm hoping we come out with a win.  Oh wait, this would be a post for another blog.  I guess I should talk about the mortgage bond market here.

Well after we finally had a day where we closed up, we started the morning with some follow-thru and were up about 15 basis points when investors apparently decided that since it's Friday, perhaps they should sell and take some profits so that they could have some pocket money for the weekend.  Even after the leading economic indicators came in at .2 vs. expected of .4, the benchmark bond remained underwater.  Never fear, it's nothing a little Honey Nut Cheerios can't cure - after I was done having my nutritious breakfast, I saw that the bond had reversed it's trend and was up 10 basis points.  Here's the current chart:

The benchmark bond is currently 2 basis points below its high for the day and 9 basis points below the 1st level of resistance - it's up 14 basis points as I write this.  If it could close above this, it could be a buy signal to investors.  Providing additional ammunition to buy mortgage bonds is the fact that according to the RSI, it is still oversold.  We've seen a mixed bag of economic data over the past week so that doesn't help provide investors with any sense of direction.  For now, you may want to take advantage of the small gains from yesterday and today and lock your loans and just enjoy a great weekend.  Of course, you may be the type that wants to wait and see if we get any more gains on Monday.  So which is it?  Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section and like and share this with your friends.  I'm happy to help with any questions regarding mortgages.  Make it a great weekend.

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